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    Stats-based CAF- What are the odds?

    So I’m somewhat new to the forums(long-time lurker), but I’ve discovered that I LOVE the CAF games here. Some of my favorites are the ones that have unique twists or restrictions that are harder than they appear. I first became interested in names because I’m a bit of a statistics nut, so I decided to do a statistics-based CAF! We all have our fantasy families and names, but how well do those translate to reality? We don’t have a ton of control over our own given names or our surnames… and let’s face it, we all have that dream list for our twenty beautiful children, but the average family size in most first-world nations, which most of the folks here on Nameberry seem to call home, is less than 3. So keeping that in mind, I’ve placed some restrictions for the parents of this family based on name averages, and some size restrictions based on averages found in most developed nations(though I’ve upped it somewhat). The probability of having multiples is also as close as I could get it to the national average(I live in the US, so I based it on that) of 1/30 births for twins and 1/726 for triplets. You’re also just slightly more likely to have a boy(though it won’t be quite as high here as in real life). Let’s see how we do with some real-world restrictions- a test run or alternate(but still very real) reality, if you will.

    So, on to the family….
    Last name MUST be in the top 1000 surnames for the country this family lives in(US stats), or a surname from your own family.
    Choose birth years for the mother and father.
    Their first names must be in the top 1000 for that year(US stats)
    Middle names are your choice.

    Twelve-sided die available here

    Roll twice and add the numbers to find out how many children you will have.

    2. 1
    3. 2
    4. 1
    5. 2
    6. 3
    7. 5
    8. 4
    9. 3
    10. 4
    11. 3
    12. 5
    13. 4
    14. 2
    15. 3
    16. 3
    17. 3
    18. 4
    19. 2
    20. 6
    21. 4
    22. 2
    23. 2
    24. 7

    For each child, roll to determine the gender. Odds are a boy, evens are a girl. IF, however, you roll a twelve, you either have a girl or multiples. Roll again, and if you roll a 1, 3, 6, or 9, then you have twins. If you roll a second 12, roll a third time. If it comes up 1 or 12, then you've just had triplets(if not, then stick with the twins). With twins or triplets, roll again to determine gender(12 would be a girl, not additional babies). If you roll the same number for the gender for your twins, roll again, and if it’s the same kind of number as the other two(evens or odds), then your twins are identical, just in case that would influence your naming decision. Identical triplets are crazy rare… but if you want to roll the die seven times to see if you get the same number all seven times, be my guest. The odds of getting the same number all seven times are still higher than identical triplets(1/100,000,000-200,000,000 are the usual estimates), but if it’s important to you, a little fantasy is okay.

    However, the multiples do count toward your overall total. So if you rolled a three, and you end up with triplets, that’s that. If, however, it's your last go, and you get multiples, just consider them your bonus children.

    Once you’ve determined the gender, roll again to choose from the following lists(if you have multiples, you may stick with the same list):

    1. Cool/Unusual Girls Names or Cool/Unusual Boys Names

    2. Choose your own or Baby Names Sure to Shock Grandma

    3. Bibical Names for Girls or Bibilical Names for Boys

    4. Choose your own or Baby Names With No Nicknames

    5. Pixar Baby Names or Hot Celebrity Baby Names

    6. Choose your own or Antique Baby Names Ready for Restoration

    7. Heroine Baby Names or Classic Baby Names for Boys

    8. Choose your own or High Energy Baby Names

    9. Ancient Names for Girls or Ancient Names for Boys

    10. Choose your own or a surname name (check out this list if you’re lost: Surname Baby Names)

    11. Hipster Baby Names or Offbeat Baby Names

    12. Choose your own or Sci-Fi Baby Names

    Middle names are up to you, but if they have some importance to you or a unifying theme, please tell us! CAFs are great ways to find cool name ideas from other Berries. Also, please bear in mind that you will be using the same number to choose the name of their spouse, so don’t lose track(and no choose-your-own for the spouses… that would just be too good).

    Surnames for your children’s spouses should be found in the top 1000 surnames as well.

    For their children, follow the same process you did for the first set, with the exception being that for their names, you cannot go with the “choose your own” option.

    Present the resulting family in whatever format works best for you.
    Last edited by kayso; March 18th, 2013 at 01:27 AM. Reason: Clarifying an issue

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