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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,568

    The Fakery Index (warning: Math)

    Just for fun, I decided to develop an index of fake children posted in the birth announcements section of nameberry. Obviously this index will never accurately capture all real, or all fake, children. I wanted to see if the forums' becoming 'tougher' on trolling was having any effect.

    I went off a few hypotheses. If you have issues with these premises, please recalculate according to your own.

    Premises
    1) The nameberry user population is no different, biologically speaking, than the general human population in terms of percentage of male versus female conceptions or percentage of multiple births. Liking names does not influence one's zygotes.

    2) Parents expecting multiples might be expected to be more excited about naming them, so sociologically we might see a larger proportion of multiple parents than the general population. I am willing to grant a 25% or so increase.

    3) 99% of the nameberry user population is female, and given that the girls' forum generates literally double the traffic of the boys' forum, women appear to enjoy dreaming up fake female children more than fake male children. Therefore the excess percentage of female births is a good marker of fakery. Likewise, multiples are seen as more "special" and a more interesting naming challenge, and the excess percentage of multiple births is a good marker of fakery.

    Facts:
    A. Natural frequency distribution of gender in the human population: 49% Female, 51% Male. Y-bearing sperm are lighter and swim faster, hence a slightly higher number of boy babies than girls.

    B. Natural frequency of twinning: 1/80 pregnancies (1.25%). Real frequency of twinning in the US, due to assisted reproductive technology: 3.31%

    C. Natural frequency of triplets: 1/6400 pregnancies (0.016%); Real frequency: 0.14%.

    I've disaggregated the results by the last 5 quarterly babyberry reports. What do you think: are we getting better? We started cracking down in the fourth quarter of 2012, so look at 4/2012 & 1/2013 versus the earlier data.

    **EDIT: including second quarter 2013!**

    2/2013
    Girls: (61) 49.2%
    Boys: (63) 51.8%
    Multiples: 7 twin sets: G/G: 2 G/B: 4 B/B: 1; proportion of girls: 57/43
    Pregnancies: 124 singletons, 7 twins. Proportion of twin pregnancies: 5.3%

    1/2013
    Girls (76): 54%
    Boys (64): 46%
    Multiples: G/G: 4; G/B: 4; B/B: 2. Proportion of Girl babies in Twin Sets: 60/40
    Pregnancies: 120 singletons, 10 twins. Proportion of twin pregnancies: 7.6%

    4/2012
    Girls: 59: 54%
    Boys: 50: 46%
    Multiples: G/G: 4 G/B: 4 B/B: 1. Proportion of Girl babies in Twin Sets 71/29
    91 singletons, 8 twins: Proportion of twin pregnancies: 8.1%

    3/2012
    Girls: 56: 57%
    Boys: 41: 43%
    Multiples: G/G: 4 G/B: 1 B/B: 0; G/B/B: 2. Proportion of Girl babies in Twin Sets 83/17
    81 singletons, 5 twins, 2 trips: Proportion of twin/triplet pregnancies: 5.7%; 2.3% [multiples: 8.0%]

    2/2012
    Girls: 84 61%
    Boys: 54 39%
    Multiples: G/G: 3 G/B: 5 B/B: 2 Proportion of Girl babies in Twin Sets: 55/45
    118 singletons; 10 twins: Proportion of twin pregnancies: 8.5%

    1/2012
    Girls: 75 [64%]
    Boys: 42 [36%]
    Multiples: G/G: 1 G/B: 3 B/B: 1; G/B/B: 1. Proportion of Girl babies in Twin Sets [50/50]
    104 singletons, 5 twins, 1 trips. Proportion of twin/triplet pregnancies: 4.5%; 0.9%; total multiples: 5.5%

    5 quarters total:
    Girls: 76 + 59 +56 +84 +75 = 350 [58%]
    Boys: 64 + 50+41+ 54 +42 = 251 [42%]
    Multiples: GG 16 GB 17 BB 8 [75/25] trips 3
    Singeltons 514 Twins 38 Trips 3

    ** Edit 6 quarters total:

    Girls: (61) + 76 + 59 +56 +84 +75 411 [56.6%]
    Boys: (63) + 64 + 50+41+ 54 +42 314 [43.4%]
    Multiples: G/G: 18 G/B: 21 B/B: 9; proportion of girls: 59.3%
    Pregnancies: 124 singletons, 7 twins. Proportion of twin pregnancies: 5.3%

    --

    Girls in Natural Population: 49%
    Boys in Natural Population: 51%
    Excess Girls = Observed/Predicted = 350/294 = 119% or 56 extra girls
    Missing Boys = Observed/Predicted = 250/306= 81.6% or 56 missing boys

    514 / 38/ 3 = 6.8% / 0.5%
    Twins in total population: 1/80 (1.25%); US: 3.31%
    Triplets in natural population: 1/6400 (0.016%); US: 0.14%
    Excess twinning: 205%
    Excess triplets: 357%
    Last edited by blade; July 6th, 2013 at 04:24 PM.
    Blade, MD

    XY: Antoine Raphael
    XX: Cassia Viviane Noor

    Aurea * Emmanuelle * Endellion * Fleur * Jacinda * Lysandra * Melisande * Myrrine * Rosamond * Seraphine * Sylvana * Verity / Blaise * Cyprian * Darius * Evander * Jules * Laurence * Lionel * Malcolm * Marius * Quentin * Rainier

    كنوز الصحراء الشرقية Hayat _ Qamar _ Sahar _ Maysan _ Farah _ Fidaa / Altair _ Fahd _ Faraj _ Khalil _ Najid _ Tariq

  2. #3
    Highly entertaining and it's good to see numbers attached to this - I firmly say that there are still many, many fakes running around, possibly that we have people making up more believable stories, but I am a skeptic in most area's and I am very unlikely to believe what most people say. (not meant to hurt people's feelings, that's just how I am).

    The 3/12 data, that would be for basically the "summer" months, am I correct? Just looking over the data and trying to figure out which reports would fall during the summer - when most kids have off of school and are bored, maybe there is a correlation?

  3. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,568
    Yeah, they're like fiscal quarters. 1/2012 = Jan, Feb, Mar; 2/2012 = Apr, May, June; 3/2012 = July, Aug, Sept; 4/2012 = Oct, Nov, Dec
    Blade, MD

    XY: Antoine Raphael
    XX: Cassia Viviane Noor

    Aurea * Emmanuelle * Endellion * Fleur * Jacinda * Lysandra * Melisande * Myrrine * Rosamond * Seraphine * Sylvana * Verity / Blaise * Cyprian * Darius * Evander * Jules * Laurence * Lionel * Malcolm * Marius * Quentin * Rainier

    كنوز الصحراء الشرقية Hayat _ Qamar _ Sahar _ Maysan _ Farah _ Fidaa / Altair _ Fahd _ Faraj _ Khalil _ Najid _ Tariq

  4. #7
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    California
    Posts
    7,102
    wow, interesting, and a lot of work.

    Honestly the fakery doesn't really bother me at all.
    I'm here to have fun and learn about interesting names, and possibly help a person once in awhile.
    If a few threads are fake, what difference does it make?
    Olivia/Livia/Livy/Liv : Thessaly/Darah/Bethel : Noelle/Eve
    Benedict/Eli: Jude/Zane: Luke/Darius : Levi/Phineas/Calvin


  5. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by flick View Post
    Highly entertaining and it's good to see numbers attached to this - I firmly say that there are still many, many fakes running around, possibly that we have people making up more believable stories, but I am a skeptic in most area's and I am very unlikely to believe what most people say.
    This.

    Also, I was thinking: While people are getting more and more creative about girls' names, boy name trends are usually more classic, tried-and-true type names. Is it possible that perhaps parents are sticking to family names, etc. for their sons and seeking help elsewhere (enter Nameberry) for girls? It would explain the disproportionate gender ratio. Just a thought.

    ~Celestia

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