For twelve years now, since 1996, the most popular name for girl babies has been Emily.  But it looks like Emily’s reign as the top girls’ name may be coming to an end–something we won’t know until the next Social Security list comes out in May.  In all fairness,  Madison or Emma deserves to take the top spot–they’ve been hovering around it for so long, but there are five other newer names that are hot enough to threaten Queen Emily’s supremacy.

What’s interesting about four of the five current contenders , Addison being the exception, is that they’re trendy without the sound or feel of trendiness typical of some of the high-rated names of a few years ago–Tiffany, Brittany/Britney, Ashley–that flashed onto the scene, became red hot, and then faded.  The difference with the present group is that they have deep roots, both historic and literary, and though they are clearly feminine, they also have strength and substance.

ADDISON is the name that’s had the most rapid rise, being the logical rhyming successor to the long-running Madison, and the first name in a while to have sprung from a TV show–Grey’s Anatomy/Private Practice.  Currently at #11, it would be a long shot for first place, though it did reach that spot in two states

AVA is a name imbued with old Hollywood glamour via Golden Age star Ava Gardner and has taken off like a rocket, largely because of its use by a dozen or so current movie stars, starting with Reese Witherspoon.  It already headed the lists of nine states last year, and was #5 on the national list.

OLIVIA is a Latinate name popularized by Shakespeare for a leading character in  Twelfth Night and has continued to be used in literature all the way up to the contemporary kids’ book porcine character Olivia.  # 7 last year, it was also #1 in three states

ISABELLA was of course the Spanish queen who backed Cristoforo Columbo’s voyages, as well as being the name of a British royal, a character in Shakespeare’s Measure for Measure, in Jane Austen and in Wuthering Heights. Last year, it was #3 nationally, top name in nine states.

SOPHIA has been a favorite of British novelists, starting with the heroine of Henry Fielding’s Tom Jones, and shares reflected cinematic stardust with Ava, this time via the sultry Sophia Loren.  Three states had this name at #1 last year, it  was #6 nationwide.

So these are the candidates.  Place your bets.

We’re often asked to talk about and predict names that are on their way up, but recently someone posed the reverse question, about names that have peaked and are trending downwards.  So here are a few thoughts on some categories of names that have gone from cool to hot to lukewarm, and their possible replacements.

WESTERN PLACE NAMES: Adios to cowboys and girls Dakota, Montana and Sierra, hello to more distant and exotic locales such as Rio, Vienna, Geneva, Sahara, Peru, Kenya

JADEN & CO: Even if it hasn’t quite happened yet, parents are bound to rebel against the megapopularity of all the nouveau Aidan siblings–Jayden, Caden, Cayden, Brayden, Kaden et al–and go back to  the original (now spelled) Aiden, which is rising in popularity all the time.

BIBLICAL GIRLS’ NAMES: Rebecca, Rachel, Hannah  and Sarah may be eternal classics, but many parents feel they have been way overused during the past few decades, and are seeking out  less common examples in the Good Book–Dinah?  Jael?  Salome?  Tamar?  Michal, anyone?–or choosing virtue names like Honor and Verity instead.  Biblical boys’ names, on the other hand, continue to thrive, with Jacob holding fast at Number One.

PREPPY SURNAMES: Upscale nineties favorites, such as the seriously striving Parkers and Porters, Carsons and Carters, seem to have lost their relevence in this changed economy, replaced by livelier, cheerier, unpretentious Irish family names like Sullivan, Brady, Reagan, Riley and Rafferty.  For what it’s worth, though, Cash is on the rise.

Why are celebrity baby names so crazy?

That’s a question reporters often ask us, and we have a pet theory.

Unlike Manhattan lofts and private jets, baby names are free and something everybody has.  Therefore, celebrities have to try that much harder to make sure the names THEY choose are more special, more unusual, more elite than the ones available to the rest of us.

So they invent names, or they find them in the baby name books of lands few other people get to visit, or they adopt the names of obscure artists or designers, or they turn what might be an everyday word into an attention-getting name.

Like Pilot, say, or Moxie, or Speck, or Apple.

Whether these crazy celebrity baby names are true exercises in creativity or ploys for extra notice, it’s hard to say.  Not knowing Nicolas Cage personally, I can’t really judge whether naming his son Kal-El comes from the depths of his soul or is an attempt to prop up a flagging career.

It’s hard to imagine Nic saying to his wife, “I know, honey, I love the name Steve, too, but if we name the baby Kal-El, my Q Score is sure to go up and I’ll get an extra mil for my next film.”  But it’s equally hard to imagine anyone saying, “Kal-El or Crimefighter?  They’re both such fabulous names.”

There’s a difference, I think, between really wacky celebrity baby names and those that are just unusual and offbeat.

Pilot Inspektor, I think is wacky, while Sailor is sweet and unusual.  Everly Bear, the name of Anthony Kedis’ infant son, is kinda crazy, while Ever Gabo, Milla Jovovich and Paul Anderson’s daughter, is cute.  Julia Roberts’ Hazel is on the sunny side of normal, while twin brother Phinnaeus (especially because of that spelling) is toppling off the edge.  Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban’s Sunday is quirky, while other new starbabies Marmaduke and Ptolemy seem to have been chosen mainly as the subjects of press releases.

Celebrities, they’re just like us?  Maybe, but not when they name their babies.

The Daily Show’s Rob Corddry just named his newborn daughter Marlo, a name invented by or for That Girl Marlo Thomas, born Margaret.

Back in the day, Marlo was considered a one-person name.  You know, back when the only Madonna was the one who gave birth to the Baby Jesus.

Not many people are naming their babies Madonna….yet.  But other formerly one-person names are now in play.

Elvis, for instance, not to mention Presley.  Elvis Costello (born Declan McManus) seemed to break the spell on that one, along with one of the now-grown sons of actor Tony Perkins and photographer Berry Berenson.  Today, Presley is the 340th most popular baby girl name, and there are 300 little Elvi born every year.

Other one-person names that are now fair game for baby namers:

ANAIS (Nin)

CHER (Bono Allman)

DEMI (Moore)

DENZEL (Washington)

KIEFER (Sutherland)

MOSS (Hart)

ORSON (Welles)

RING (Lardner)

TALULLAH (Bankhead)

THELONIOUS (Monk)

TRUMAN (Capote)

WEDNESDAY (Addams)

WYNTON (Marsalis)

There is, however, still only one OPRAH.

I once wrote a magazine story where I went looking for all the women named Pamela Redmond in America.  It was a strange experience, meeting this wide range of women — a welfare mom in California; a factory worker in Iowa; an architect in New York City — with whom I expected to feel a kinship based on our mutual name.  But didn’t, necessarily.

According to a new tool called How Many of Me?, there are 51 people named Pamela Redmond out there, but only one named Pamela Satran, one of the best arguments I’ve heard for using my husband’s name.  My kids Rory and Owen are similarly one-of-a-kind, though my husband (Richard) and older son (Joseph) share their names with a couple of other people on the planet, undoubtedly long-lost relatives.

If you’re looking for a truly unique name for your baby, or just want to see how common your own name is, check out this tool.  Of course, a lot depends on your last name.  A Smith or a Jackson may have to come up with something really unusual to qualify as unique.  I tested it out and came up with 3,198 Emily Smiths and 3,122 Matthew Jacksons, but only a couple of statistically likely Andromeda Smiths or Jericho Jacksons.

Of course, if your last name is (I picked these out of the phone book) Nienaber or Emenogu, you’ll have a much easier time being distinctive.  You can choose a popular name such as Isabella or Ethan and still be fairly sure your child’s full name will be one-of-a-kind.

You may even feel, if you have a unfamiliar or complicated last name, that it may be preferable to choose a common first name for your baby, that Emily Emenogu will have an easier time overall than Aanisah Emenogu. And you may be right.

Some people try to make a name “more unique” by varying the spelling or pronunciation, turning Ashley into Ashleigh or Ashlea or pronouncing is ash-LAY-uh.  Take this route only if you don’t mind spelling and respelling and explaining a name for the next hundred or so years.  And definitely DON‘T try this if your last name is Smythe.

You may want your baby’s name to be unique.  But there may also be such a thing as too unique.